🔥 probability - Expected value for blackjack - Mathematics Stack Exchange

Most Liked Casino Bonuses in the last 7 days 💰

Filter:
Sort:
T7766547
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
50 xB
Max cash out:
$ 1000

The good news (if you're a winning player) is that the more hours you play,. Going back to our original example of $25 EV per hour, we would find our N0 by ...


Enjoy!
Blackjack: Finding Expected Values of Games of Chance with Cards - Video & Lesson Transcript | ipodxs.com
Valid for casinos
VIDEO BLACKJACK - INSURANCE / ODDS & POSSIBLE EV? - Blackjack - Gambling - Page 1 - Forums - Wizard of Vegas
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
This Might Be the Best Way to Beat the Odds WithOUT Card Counting

JK644W564
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
60 xB
Max cash out:
$ 200

You can use the expected value concept in Poker, sports betting, casino games.. Expected Value (EV) is essentially a positive (+EV) or negative (-EV). Blackjack, where card-counting can increase your expected value to about 1.02 but it is ...


Enjoy!
Attention Required! | Cloudflare
Valid for casinos
How Expected Value Works in Gambling – Everything You Need to Know
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
How Important Are Card Counting Playing Deviations?

B6655644
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
50 xB
Max cash out:
$ 200

In this video we learn about games of cards, and how to calculate probabilities. We look at the game of Blackjack and calculate the probability of...


Enjoy!
Attention Required! | Cloudflare
Valid for casinos
COVIDELPI | SUSPENDIDO
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
Expected value EV is one of the most important concepts in gambling to understand — especially if you have aspirations of being a professional gambler of any kind.
Other gamblers — those https://ipodxs.com/blackjack/ari-gold-blackjack.html the worst of it — will eventually lose all their money if they keep playing.
A concept related to expected values is risk and the tolerance of risk.
This post explains what expected value is, specifically, and it also explains how you should use this positive expected value blackjack to inform your gambling decisions.
You have 3 things to consider when estimating the expected value of a bet.
The first of these is.
You might have a 50% chance of winning a bet, a 75% chance of winning, or a 5% chance of winning.
None of these by themselves tell you what the expected value of the bet is.
This is usually expressed as a ratio in odds format.
For example, if you bet on a specific number in roulette, the payoff is 35 to 1.
None of these factors by themselves describe your expected value.
You must look at them in aggregate.
Most positive expected value blackjack games are games of incomplete information, so your ability to estimate which bets are +EV versus which bets are —EV has a huge effect positive expected value blackjack your success as a gambling pro.
The classic example is a bet on a coin toss.
This is how all casino games work, by the way.
If you add the 2 together, you should have a total of 0.
If you have any other total, you did the math wrong.
I recently read Poker Winners Are Different by Alan Schoonmaker.
Here was the question.
You have 9 opponents.
You push all-in preflop.
How many callers are you hoping for?
You can choose any number between 1 and 9.
I asked a couple of positive expected value blackjack this question via text.
One of them got it correct 9and the other guessed 5.
But the only correct way to get the answer to this is to look at the expected value of the various outcomes.
I understand people who answer 1 or 2, by the way.
I was taught that you raise preflop read more a strong hand like that to narrow the field.
In fact, each player who calls lowers your probability of winning the pot.
But expected value has more to consider.
Your return on investment ROI is much better, too.
I write about gambling, so the explanations and examples I use are strictly gambling-related.
In other words, I talk about expected value in terms of dollars.
Mathematicians who specialize positive expected value blackjack probability have a broader definition.
You assume a perfect series of 6 rolls.
When you factor variance in, you might get your pocket aces cracked a dozen times in a row.
Casinos use this principle daily.
There was a time when you could get into some nice +EV situations on the internet by using a casino signup bonus.
When positive expected value blackjack sign up for an online casino bonus, the casino gives you extra money in your account to reward you for signing up.
Of course, you were required to make a certain number of wagers before being allowed to cash any money out.
But if you understand that the house edge in blackjack is very low if you use basic strategy, you could easily clear that wagering requirement with really low expected losses.
They started limiting the games and the action which counted toward those wagering requirements.
They also increased the amount you were required to wager before cashing out.
But then assume that the casinos increased the wagering requirements from 15 times to 30 times your deposit bonus.
The expected value for the casino is to win all your money and then some.
Even with a lot of variance, over time, the casino expects to come out way ahead.
Understanding expected value is how you understand that.

TT6335644
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
30 xB
Max cash out:
$ 500

EV is short for expected value and is often stated with a positive or negative. Blackjack – .5% to 3%; Baccarat banker bet – 1.06%; Baccarat.


Enjoy!
Attention Required! | Cloudflare
Valid for casinos
Blackjack: Finding Expected Values of Games of Chance with Cards - Video & Lesson Transcript | ipodxs.com
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
Determining Your Blackjack Bets: A Card Counter's Guide

A7684562
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
30 xB
Max cash out:
$ 200

The only way to make money gambling in the long term is to find a positive EV bet and repeat it. You can also play poker, where the casino acts as the ...


Enjoy!
probability - Expected value for blackjack - Mathematics Stack Exchange
Valid for casinos
Expected Returns in Infinite-Deck Blackjack
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
Guide to Game Theory - expected value and independent events

TT6335644
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
60 xB
Max cash out:
$ 200

EV is an abbreviation for expected value. Regardless if you play poker, blackjack or on horses you will always have an expected value for the outcome of your ...


Enjoy!
How Expected Value Works in Gambling – Everything You Need to Know
Valid for casinos
VIDEO BLACKJACK - INSURANCE / ODDS & POSSIBLE EV? - Blackjack - Gambling - Page 1 - Forums - Wizard of Vegas
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
Our resident blackjack gurus explain EV, a fundamental gaming concept understood by all expert players.
The time has come.
EV has lots of names: expectation, long-run expectation, LRE, fair value or expected value.
Most people positive expected value blackjack call it EV these days.
You find it in poker, baccarat, craps and just about every casino and some non-casino games.
You even find it in the imprecise world of professional sports betting.
It is most useful in poker and blackjack — games where positive expected value blackjack decisions need to be made mid-way through a hand.
Let us give you an example.
As luck would have it positive expected value blackjack get dealt two picture cards for a total of 20, and the dealer has a 6 as his upcard.
Of course you stand on your 20.
What is this hand worth at this moment?
If you suddenly had to sell this hand, before the positive expected value blackjack drew his cards, what would be the fair price?
Most people would answer no.
Obviously there are three possibilities here.
The dealer could draw out to 21 and you unluckily lose, the dealer could draw out to 20 and you get a push also known as a stand-offor the dealer could get 19 or worse, and you win.
Another way of thinking of this is that the EV of this situation is +70.
How is this number useful?
Well, you can use it to calculate decisions.
For example, some people like to split their tens when the dealer has a six.
Many experienced players say they are crazy!
What if we split?
Now remember if you split you will have two of these +28.
Two things worth +28.
Of course the one thing worth 70.
Or in fact, be greedy!
So there you have it — those ten splitters are crazy after all.
You can use EV calculations like this to work out all sorts of blackjack decisions.
For example, what about when you have 12 and the dealer has a 3?
Some people say to stand and some people say to hit.
Hitting the 12 has an EV of -23.
Not much in it, and you expect to lose no matter what you do, but remember money saved is just as valuable as money won.
Better to lose 23.
But it is a fact that positive expected value blackjack the long run you will be financially better https://ipodxs.com/blackjack/norwegian-cruise-blackjack-rules.html by hitting blackjack ranch texas your 12s against threes.
Now you understand the concept of EV better.

BN55TO644
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
50 xB
Max cash out:
$ 200

This is because, no matter how good you are, you won't get your predictions.. High quality predictions involve making wagers with positive expected value.


Enjoy!
Casino Advantage in Blackjack
Valid for casinos
Expected Value - Casino Review Squad
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
Dismiss Join GitHub today GitHub is home to over 40 million developers working together to host and review code, manage projects, and build software together.
Other Advantage Systems This article reviews other systems for achieving a positive expected value EV for the blackjack player.
These techniques keep a count of remaining cards in the shoe and then estimate if the next hand is likely to win or lose.
The player then positive expected value blackjack read article bet based on these odds.
Additionally, some techniques also prescribe altered player behavior based on the count.
The expected edge for the player depends on the number of decks, the size of the count system and the exact rules offered by the house.
These figures assume flawless adherence to the technique by the player.
Naturally this results in a negative expected value EV situation.
Normally, the click here must wait for a favorable condition to begin making large bets and then waste money sitting at the table until then.
In a team situation, a scouter watches the table and waits for the game to become favorable.
Then he signals the player to join and informs them of the counts.
This strategy is fully incremental positive expected value blackjack the above card counting techniques and may add up to EV positive expected value blackjack />See the MIT blackjack team.
Shuffle Tracking Aces are favorable to the player because of the asymmetry of a player making blackjack pays 3:2 and a dealer making blackjack loses 1:1.
Players may remember if there are particularly many aces during a positive expected value blackjack part of the shoe.
Then they may closely watch the shuffle and then cut the shoe so that these aces come first.
The player then bets heavy at the start of the new shoe because of the expected positive EV.
You signed out in another tab or window.

G66YY644
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
50 xB
Max cash out:
$ 200

The play with the greatest expected value is the right one.. The following tables display expected returns for any play in blackjack based on ...


Enjoy!
Expected Returns in Infinite-Deck Blackjack
Valid for casinos
Casino Advantage in Blackjack
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
Hello, readers of SuperCasinoSites!
My name is Dan Howard.
I am one of the co-writers at this website and a person with a vast experience in playing roulette online and offline.
I have helped review many of the web-based casinos and roulette variations you can read about at SuperCasinoSites, with a focus on providing you with accurate information that can help you in finding the best casino websites.
Casino operators seem to share the common notion that as soon as a customer steps on their premises, all the money in his or her pocket belongs to the house.
This may sound like an overstatement but it is true.
Each game on the casino floor, be it a slot machine, roulette, craps, or baccarat, is designed in such a way so as to give the house a built-in advantage that causes gamblers to inevitably lose money in the long term.
Bonus expires after 7 days.
To receive the bonus wager 20 x deposit amount within 21 days.
This offer may not be combined with any other offer.
Game: Rich Wilde and the Book of Dead, Spin Value: click at this page />WR of 30x Deposit + Bonus amount and 60x Free Spin winnings amount only Slots count within 30 days.
Max bet is 10% min £0.
Free Spins must be used before deposited funds.
But even if one is not an advantage player, the learn more here of 21 still offers the best possible odds you can find on the casino floor.
The House Edge — What Is It and How Does It Work?
When a gambler says they are playing a game with a 2.
The house edge can be calculated as long as one knows what the with a given bet are.
Suppose you and a friend of yours are shooting a six-sided dice on the street.
This payout puts your friend at a huge disadvantage.
In essence, casinos do the same thing to extract positive expected value blackjack, i.
The House Edge Additional TipsThis is not to say you can never win in a casino.
If it was so, no one would even bother playing casino games, to begin with.
One peculiarity of the house edge is that it manifests itself over a large sample size of bets where hundreds of thousands of hands, dice rolls, roulette or slot spins are involved.
So practically, the more bets you make, the more the house edge begins to manifest itself.
Over the course of one million dice rolls, the chances of the edge you hold over your friend not manifesting itself are practically nil.
Of course, such a thing as variance exists, although some gamblers would prefer to call it luck.
Streaks are an inseparable part of gambling, making it virtually impossible for your friend to win only once in every six trials.
Sometimes it would happen so that they win or lose two, three, four or more times in a row.
The bottom line is they will inevitably end up parting with 0.
The Casino Advantage in Blackjack Blackjack is a unique casino game because players are not combating a fixed house edge.
The casinos gain advantage over players by adjusting the playing conditions at their blackjack tables but we shall tackle this subject later.
When a player hits their hand and goes over 21 and this happens around 28% of the timethey lose their bet even if the dealer busts afterward.
There is also around a 3% difference in the winning frequency rates of the dealer and the player, and guess who it benefits?
The correct answer is the house, of course.
It is estimated that in a fair game of blackjack, the probability of the player winning a hand is around 44% whereas the likelihood of them losing the hand to the dealer is roughly 47%.
The remaining 9% account for the probability of the player and dealer pushing.
The Casino Advantage in Blackjack Additional TipsSo what is the casino advantage in blackjack?
This question is a tough one to answer as the house edge for the game of 21 varies in different gambling establishments and may even differ from one blackjack table to another depending on the rules.
In blackjack, your playing decisions have a direct impact on the casino advantage as well.
When optimal play is at hand, players can effectively reduce the house edge to as little as 0.
Without strategic play, the casino advantage jumps to 2% when conditions are favorable but in some variations, it may be much higher.
Table Conditions and Their Influence on the House Edge in Blackjack As we explained earlier, the playing conditions at blackjack tables have a pronounced effect on the house edge players are up against.
The advantage the casino holds at a given table is, in essence, the sum total of the edges different rules yield.
Why Deck Number Affects the House Edge?
One of the first conditions a blackjack player needs to consider is the number of decks a game utilizes.
Blackjack is played with one to eight full decks of cards.
The house edge increases slightly with each deck that is introduced into play, which is puzzling to some players.
The reason more decks equal more blackjacks.
But this line of reasoning is flawed.
At the start of a fresh deck or shoe, the ratio of small cards to high cards is always the same whether you are or eight decks.
What causes the house edge to change on the basis of deck number then?
The casino may have the edge when it comes to win frequency but positive expected value blackjack is partially offset by the extra payouts players get for blackjacks and and splits.
When multiple decks are in play, blackjacks tend to occur slightly less frequently and vice versa, the fewer the decks, the more frequently do blackjacks occur.
Note that the dealer positive expected value blackjack benefits from go here more blackjacks when fewer positive expected value blackjack are used.
However, players are paid 1.
You also get more opportunities to execute successful double downs and splits when fewer decks are in use.
This has to do with the effect of removing individual cards, which becomes less pronounced click here you play with multiple decks.
Because of this, pitched games are considered the best option for players provided that the house has not changed their other rules.
The chart below shows you how the house edge increases with each deck you add to the game.
You will notice the player actually has a minuscule advantage over the house in single-deck games, but only on condition they implement perfect basic strategy.
Deck Number Effect on the House Edge 1 0.
One of the more common variations is a dealer standing on soft 17 S17 as opposed to a dealer hitting soft 17 H17.
Rookie players are quick to jump to the conclusion that the H17 rule causes the dealer to exceed 21 more often.
And indeed the dealer will bust on some of the hits they take on their soft hands.
Allowed Doubling Totals The more flexibility a blackjack player has when it comes to doubling on their two-card totals, the more the house edge drops.
Doubling down gives you the great opportunity of increasing your wagers and therefore, your profits when your dealer is in a weak spot.
Some casinos would limit players to doubling only on two-card totals of 9 through 11, which takes away around 0.
Others would allow doubling only on totals of 10 and 11 which further increases the house edge by 0.
Splitting Pairs and DAS is another great more info for blackjack players to extract more value from good situations when the dealer is at a disadvantage.
Like doubling down, splitting gives you the chance to increase your action and generate more profits, which is why it is important here you to pick games where you can split and resplit to as many hands as possible.
You will combat a lower house edge on such tables.
Some establishments effectively add around 0.
The Surrender Option or Its Absence Thereof While at the blackjack table, you will sometimes find yourself in a jam and the ability to bail out from such tough spots will definitely prove useful.
Optimal play in these scenarios calls for because your chances of improving your total on the next hit are slimmer than those of busting.
The house edge decreases if players are allowed to surrender on any two-card total they like.
There are two variations of this rule, pertaining to the situations where the dealer exposes an Ace.
This gives you roughly 0.
This is detrimental because if the dealer indeed has a natural, they will immediately reveal it, making it altogether impossible for you to exercise the surrender decision.
Late surrender reduces the house advantage by around 0.
The Payouts for Blackjacks We have placed this rule variation last but it definitely does not rank last in terms of importance and impact click to see more the house edge.
Traditionally, the payout ratio for blackjacks is 3 to 2, which means you receive 1.
However, many gambling operators have started to offer worse payouts at some of their tables where this valuable hand returns at a rate of 6 to 5.
They are larger alright but the same cannot be said about the payouts you receive for blackjacks at these tables.
Some establishments will go as far as offering players even money for blackjacks, particularly in the situations where the dealer exposes an Ace, which is just as bad as accepting insurance.
The latter is to be always avoided because it yields a house edge of 7.
Check the table below for a summary of the house edges the most common rule variations yield.
Keep in mind these figures are valid is blackjack contract what mercenary only.
The minus sign indicates an increase in the house edge by said percentage whereas the plus sign denotes a decrease that favors the players.
Rule Variation Impact on the House Edge Doubling Down on 9 through 11 only -0.
Negative Expected Value It is of essential importance for a blackjack player to be able to figure out what expected value EV playing at blackjack on 12 given blackjack table gives them.
Expected value is nothing but a measure of the wins or losses you can expect per wager when betting on the same odds again and again.
When a given game or bet type gives you negative expectation, you are doomed to lose money in the long run and vice versa.
We are mentioning this here because there is a direct connection between expected value and the house edge.
In fact, whenever there is a house edge, your expected value will always be in the negative.
The good news is is one of the select few casino games where players can completely overcome the casino advantage and enjoy positive EV but for the purpose, they must implement advantage play techniques such as card counting.
To calculate your EV, you must know the probability of winning and losing.
With blackjack, it would be easier for you to figure out the long-term payout percentage by subtracting the house edge of the game you are playing from 100.
If you are playing against a 0.
It is worth keeping in mind you arrive at your expected hourly loss over very long periods of time.
In the short term, your results may vary greatly from your hourly loss expectations.
You calculate your expected hourly losses by multiplying the house edge by the number of hands you play per hour, your action i.
So if you are a basic strategy player and join a blackjack table with a 0.
Your win rate is calculated in the same manner, only this time you multiply your advantage by your action the number of hands and the average amount wagered per hand.
Of course, to get an advantage in the game of 21, you need to master card counting or other advantage-play techniques.
We go into further details on this subject in the next article of this guide where we introduce you to basic strategy, explain how and why it works, and provide a few tips on how to easily memorize the strategy charts.
We ourselves are not casino operators, do not offer any real-money games on our website, and cannot be held liable for the financial risks readers take when participating in real-money gambling activities.
Visitors of SuperCasinoSites should keep in mind gambling can be highly addictive and as such, should always be approached responsibly and with due measure.
If you or someone you know struggles with gambling addiction, we recommend you contact the free gambling helplines like those operated by organizations like.
Before you register and play at any of the casinos we review and recommend, do check the legal and regulatory frameworks pertaining to real-money online gambling in your country to ensure you are not acting in violation with its laws.

B6655644
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
50 xB
Max cash out:
$ 1000

It is widely accepted that the typical Blackjack gambler who is trying to beat the game, but bases his game decisions on hunches, luck, or superstitions, is playing a game with about a four percent disadvantage. In other words, the expected value of the typical player is to lose 4 for every 100 he bets.


Enjoy!
blackjack-simulator/Other Advantage ipodxs.com at master · fulldecent/blackjack-simulator · GitHub
Valid for casinos
COVIDELPI | SUSPENDIDO
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
positive expected value blackjack

BN55TO644
Bonus:
Free Spins
Players:
All
WR:
30 xB
Max cash out:
$ 1000

Many people are aware that blackjack can be beaten through card. You'll be able to capitalize on this positive expected value (+EV) by also ...


Enjoy!
Reddit - theydidthemath - [request]What is the expected value on a $1 blackjack hand? House rules hit soft 17 apply.
Valid for casinos
Reddit - theydidthemath - [request]What is the expected value on a $1 blackjack hand? House rules hit soft 17 apply.
Visits
Dislikes
Comments
How Important Are Card Counting Playing Deviations?